Monday, July 17, 2006

War may explode all across Mideast

Once again, Lebanon is burning. Once again, rockets are raining down on northern Israel. Once again, the region that has seen war erupt on average every six years since 1948 stands on the brink of conflagration, one that could engulf the entire Middle East in dangerous new ways.

As Israel presses its offensive against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement deep into Lebanese territory and Hezbollah defiantly launches missiles over the border, U.S. and Lebanese officials are predicting no early end to a crisis that many fear could rapidly escalate out of control.

With their act of bravado in seizing two Israeli soldiers last week, Hezbollah guerrillas unleashed a volatile brew of competing agendas, sectarian rivalries and unresolved hostilities that extend far beyond tiny Lebanon, to include Iran, Syria, the Palestinian territories and the continuing war in Iraq.

"The situation in the Middle East can get out of control very quickly. What seems like a border flare-up can turn into a regional conflict in a matter of days," said Michael Oren, a military historian and senior fellow at the Shalem Center, a Jerusalem academic institute.

"I think this can be seen as the beginning of a regional conflict," he added. "How can you stop it? There doesn't seem to be a diplomatic option."

This is not yet a regional war. But the conflict has moved far beyond the usual cross-border spats that regularly embroil Israeli soldiers and Hezbollah guerrillas.

Israel has hinted that Syria could be next unless Hezbollah is restrained. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has warned that an attack on Syria would be viewed as an attack on Iran. Hezbollah has declared that it is ready for "open war."

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