Three War Forecast

Anthony and I are in Brazil to attend my nephew’s wedding. We fly back tonight.

When I planned this trip, I welcomed it as a chance to get away for a relaxing weekend — to escape the daily bombardment of news about Iran, Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon.

Instead, it feels as though we jumped into the thick of the melee: vicious, coordinated attacks by criminal gangs throughout the state of São Paulo.

From the moment we stepped into our taxi at São Paulo’s airport, the driver talked incessantly about nothing else: Scores of municipal buses torched. Dozens of police stations and public buildings bombed. Shopping centers, auto dealerships, parking lots — all trashed.

As we sped down the highway to the city, he ranted excitedly, turning his head in our direction to punctuate each sentence. My first thought was to tell him to pay more attention to the road. My second was to question his sources. But both thoughts were wiped away by what happened next.

A billowing column of smoke darkened the brightly lit city skyline just ahead. Within seconds we could see its source on the other side of the median — a large city bus consumed by flames that leaped three stories into the air.

Had it been I-95, traffic would be backed up for miles in both directions. But on Brazil’s highways, unless lanes themselves are blocked, no one slows down. The bus had been pulled off to the shoulder. Police cars and fire engines, stretched thin by the other attacks all over town, had not yet arrived. So traffic flowed uninterrupted and we zoomed by with no delay.

But I was in shock. This was obviously no longer the same, tranquil, nonviolent Brazil of my childhood. The bustling cities of Brazil’s most prosperous industrial state have been infected by a single, underlying disease: Coordinated violence. Inexplicable destruction. Senseless bloodshed.

Thank God most of the gangs here are not targeting human life; they shoo all the passengers off each bus before torching it. And thank God, after 48 hours of havoc, the gang leaders called off the attacks just as abruptly as they began.

But what’s coming next? And what lessons can be learned from this apparently inexplicable event?

7 Critical Lessons for
American Investors

To you, what’s happening in São Paulo may appear irrelevant of distant. But nothing could be further from the truth.

First, violent, coordinated attacks are a worldwide phenomenon: France, Britain, Spain. The Levantine, Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent. In each case, the political agenda may be different. But the strategies and tactics are too similar to ignore.

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen tactics prevail over ideology. The same thing happened three decades ago when student rebellions spread across the globe from Berkeley ... to the Sorbonne ... to Tokyo and Pusan ... Caracas and São Paulo. Each rebellion had different goals. But all readily implemented copycat tactics.

Second, most police forces are hopelessly unprepared. The attacks are coordinated with military precision. Only an equally coordinated army is capable of fending them off.

Third, the economy is paralyzed. In São Paulo, municipal buses stopped running, two million commuters were left stranded and business was virtually shut down. We saw the same thing happen in New York, London, Madrid and Mumbai.

Fourth, violence itself can easily catch fire like a raging epidemic. Once it erupts in one major metropolis, it often spreads to others in the region. We saw this in France last year. We see it in Iraq every day. And this past week in the state of São Paulo, it was abundantly evident as well.

Fifth, despite all the risks, as long as it doesn’t affect their daily lives directly, most people are inclined to plod through their regular routines as if nothing were happening. We’re equally guilty of this pattern. After the first day of the São Paulo attacks, we went out to dinner in an upscale neighborhood. After dinner, we dropped Anthony and his friend at a club. São Paulo’s vibrant night life seemed unaffected.

On the surface, this may sound reassuring. But in reality, it’s a symptom of another troubling aspect of this phenomenon. As the crisis escalates step by step, most people become inured, consoling themselves in the belief that “it couldn’t possibly get any worse.”

And alas, it’s that complacency which often helps opens the door to each new phase: First, attacks on strategic economic targets ... then military targets ... and ultimately “soft” civilian targets without regard to human life.

Sixth, when an insurgency, a rebellion or a war reaches critical mass, military goals come first regardless of any impacts on economic infrastructure or financial markets.

In Iran, president Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei knew that their nuclear gamesmanship would hurt exports and slice points off their GDP. But their long-term geopolitical goal — to lead the Muslim world — prevailed.

They also know that if they follow through on their recent threats to choke off the supply of oil to the West, it could gut their own oil revenues. But their geopolitical objective — to retaliate against any UN sanctions — will take precedence.

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